SolomonSmallCaps vs. THE MARKET:
SolomonSmallCaps SIMULATED PORTFOLIO
September 1, 2008
Below are 30 stocks and two ETF’s that form our $100,000
“simulated” portfolio. We spent many hours researching
countless opportunities in the resource sector, so deciding on
these 30 situations was no easy task. We remain bullish on the
commodity sector in general and we believe we have found the right
“balance” with this portfolio which includes 22 TSX
Venture Exchange companies, seven TSX listed companies, one NASDAQ
company, and two TSX traded ETF’s including a big call on
the Horizons NYMEX Natural Gas Bull (HNU) which
we are investing 15% of our portfolio into right off the bat.
We will “sell” and “buy” individual securities
as conditions warrant, and we will report each “transaction”
here on the site. New stocks/ETF’s could be added and some
could be deleted. This is a “simulated” portfolio
that does not involve real money. We will track our performance
against the overall market, and we are confident we will beat
the market by a substantial margin.
“Category 1” features stocks that we believe will
significantly outperform the market over the immediate to short
term (one to three months); “Category 2” features
stocks that we believe will significantly outperform the market
over the intermediate to longer term; Category 3 consists of ETF’s.
We have “double-weighted” Category 1 over Category
2 as we believe Category 1 stocks have the greatest immediate
upside potential. Some brief comments on each stock and ETF will
be found in this report.
Ten of the stocks in our model portfolio were released last Tuesday,
August 26, following the market close that day, so the “purchase
price” for these stocks is based on their respective closing
prices August 26. The “purchase price” for all other
securities is based on closing prices August 29, 2008.
The total portfolio is currently invested 80% and holds a total
starting cash position of $20,000 ($10,000 in Category 1, $10,000
in Category 2, and $0 in Category 3).
Category 1 - $3,000 Initially Invested
Into Each
|
Security |
Symbol |
Purchase |
Current |
Value |
Gain (Loss)
|
| BacTech Mining |
BM (TSX-V) |
.08 |
.085 |
$3,187.50 |
+ $187.50 |
| Columbia Yukon |
CYU (TSX-V) |
0.35 |
0.39 |
3,342.86 |
+ 342.86 |
| Eldorado Mining |
ELD (TSX) |
8.26 |
8.44 |
3,065.38 |
+ 65.38 |
| Greencastle Resources |
VGN (TSX-V) |
0.35 |
0.345 |
2,957.14 |
- (42.86) |
| Hathor Exploration |
HAT (TSX-V) |
3.58 |
4.37 |
3,662.01 |
+ 662.01 |
| Kodiak Exploration |
KXL (TSX-V) |
1.55 |
1.88 |
3,638.71 |
+ 638.71 |
| MacDonald Mines |
BMK (TSX-V) |
0.19 |
0.19 |
3,000.00 |
0 |
| Noront Resources |
NOT (TSX-V) |
2.71 |
2.71 |
3,000.00 |
0 |
| Nortec Ventures |
NVT (TSX-V) |
0.28 |
0.29 |
3,107.14 |
+ 107.14 |
| Pinetree Capital |
PNP (TSX) |
1.85 |
1.85 |
3,000.00 |
|
| Cash |
|
|
|
10,000.00 |
0 |
“Category 1” Total Investment:
$40,000.00
Total Current Value: $41,960.74
--------------------------------------------------------
Gain (Loss) $1,960.74 or + 4.9% vs. 2.1% market gain
Category 2 - $1,500 Initially Invested
Into Each
Security |
Symbol |
Purchase |
Current |
Value |
Gain (Loss) |
| Clean Energy Fuels |
CLNE (NASDAQ) |
17.24 |
17.24 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Crew Energy |
CR (TSX) |
15.00 |
15.00 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Eastmain Resources |
ER (TSX) |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Explor Resources |
EXS (TSX-V) |
0.37 |
0.37 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Goldsource Mines |
GXS (TSX-V) |
4.43 |
4.43 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| GoldQuest Mining |
GQC (TSX-V) |
0.30 |
0.30 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| IMA Exploration |
IMR (TSX-V) |
0.30 |
0.30 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Junex |
JNX (TSX-V) |
2.59 |
2.59 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Legend Power |
LPS (TSX-V) |
1.30 |
1.30 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Ontex Resources |
ONT (TSX-V) |
0.47 |
0.47 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Pediment |
PEZ (TSX-V) |
1.34 |
1.34 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Probe Mines |
PRB (TSX-V) |
0.25 |
0.25 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Rubicon Minerals |
RMX (TSX) |
1.84 |
1.84 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Selwyn Resources |
SWN (TSX-V) |
0.11 |
0.11 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Sherwood Copper |
SWC (TSX-V) |
4.65 |
4.65 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Shore Gold |
SGF (TSX) |
1.49 |
1.49 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Solex Resources |
SOX (TSX-V) |
0.255 |
0.255 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Uranium One |
UUU (TSX) |
4.55 |
4.55 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Vast Exploration |
VST (TSX-V) |
0.58 |
0.58 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| VMS Ventures |
VMS (TSX-V) |
0.54 |
0.54 |
1,500.00 |
0 |
| Cash On Hand |
|
|
|
10,000.00 |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“Category 2” Total Investment: $40,000
Total Current Value: 40,000
----------------------------------------------------
Gain (Loss) 0.00
Category 3 - ETF’s
|
Symbol |
Purchase |
Current |
Value |
Gain (Loss) |
| HGU (TSX) |
$17.24 |
$17.24 |
5,000.00 |
0 |
| HNU (TSX) |
15.09 |
15.09 |
15,000.00 |
0 |
| Cash On Hand |
|
|
0.00 |
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“Category 3” Total Investment: $20,000
Total Current Value: $20,000
----------------------------------------------------
Gain (Loss) $ 0.00
Category 1 Stocks
BacTech Mining (BM, TSX-V)
Little-known company trading under 10 cents with Yamana as its
largest shareholder. BacTech owns commercially-proven, bacterial
oxidation and bioleaching technology that liberates precious and
base metals from difficult-to-treat sulphide ores and concentrates.
This company has been around for a while but now is finally starting
to make significant strides with its business plan. BacTech announced
its first refractory gold project in June and we expect it will
close at least two or three other situations before year-end.
This is an interesting turnaround play with an intriguing environmental
angle as well.
Columbia Yukon Explorations (CYU, TSX-V)
Columbia Yukon is developing a world class molybdenum deposit
in northwestern British Columbia near Cassiar, and current drilling
outside of the known resource (an updated 43-101 was released
in August) is delivering very good results. The recent 43-101
(based on drilling through 2007) showed the Storie Deposit contains
an indicated and inferred resource of 170 million pounds of Mo,
which means the market is giving a valuation of only nine cents
per pound of Mo at CYU’s current 39 cent share price. This
stock is undervalued, plain and simple, and should strengthen
nicely in a better overall market in September. Assays from approximately
another 50 or 60 holes yet to come.
Eldorado Gold (ELD, TSX)
Low-cost producer with a solid growth profile and a history of
strong Septembers. We were very impressed with management’s
takeover of Frontier Pacific Mining, a steal for Eldorado shareholders.
Eldorado should produce more than 300,000 ounces of gold this
year. Technically, the stock held up well during the recent market
sell-off and will accelerate nicely if the gold price strengthens
further as we suspect it will.
Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V)
One of our favorites which we first uncovered and recommended
at 15 cents May 31. Sound management, very strong financials,
and solid portfolio of diversified projects (oil and gas royalties
from Primate oil field, coal, shale gas in Quebec, gold and uranium).
More “high-impact” projects under review. Second quarter
results just released, showing revenue at a record $1 million
and six-month pre-tax profit of three cents per share. With just
a $15 million market cap, this cash cow is a very attractive opportunity
short and long term. Just 44 million outstanding shares and CEO
says company “may never have to go back to the market for
capital.”
Hathor Exploration (HAT, TSX-V)
Uranium, we believe, will be a big story in the year ahead, and
Hathor has made a significant discovery at its Midwest NE Property
in the Athabasca Basin. Plenty of blue-sky potential here.
Kodiak Exploration (KXL, TSX-V)
Kodiak was hit hard by the recent market sell-off but has bounced
off strong support at $1.20. Kodiak’s Hercules Property
in Ontario’s Beardmore-Geraldton area is going to be a huge
winner, we believe, with multi-million ounce potential. This is
one of those stocks you probably just want to tuck away for a
year or two and not worry about. Over the past year it has been
quite volatile, so it also does present trading opportunities
for very experienced investors.
MacDonald Mines (BMK, TSX-V)
One cannot overlook the continuing excellent exploration potential
of McFauld’s Lake and the James Bay Lowlands where BMK is
a huge landholder. Everyone, though, has fallen out of love with
BMK, which is why we believe it’s time to be a buyer. The
stock has steadily drifted all the way down from a 52-week high
of $1.32 to below 20 cents where it just has to be a screaming
buy in our view. We strongly believe McFauld’s will become
one of the great “area plays” in Canadian mining history,
and BMK will be right in the middle of it. Lots of drilling news
coming out of BMK and McFauld’s in general in the coming
weeks and months.
Noront Resources (NOT, TSX-V)
Again, McFauld’s Lake has got to be in any resource investor’s
portfolio and Noront is King of that area with the Eagle 1 Deposit,
Eagle 2, and several other very interesting situations. Noront
currently controls 100% of 120,000 acres at McFauld’s, and
has joint ventures covering another 168,000 acres. Their Windfall
Lake Project in Quebec is significant as well. We expect plenty
of news out of Noront over the next few months, and of course
this company is also a ripe takeover target.
Nortec Ventures (NVT, TSX-V)
The same group that ran Frontier Pacific Mining is in charge
of Nortec which is getting very interesting results from its Kaukua
platinum-palladium-gold-nickel-copper project in northeastern
Finland. They also have high-quality nickel-copper-cobalt targets
in Labrador, one of which is currently being drilled. The individuals
behind Nortec are company builders and mine finders - they will
make Nortec a success story.
Pinetree Capital (PNP, TSX)
We believe a very significant rally is now underway in the Venture
Exchange, and in that situation Pinetree will do extremely well
with a large portfolio of junior resource companies. The recent
market sell-off brought the stock down to one-tenth of its value
from early 2007.
Category 2 Stocks
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE, NASDAQ)
Clean Energy is very much the right stock at the right time -
the largest provider of natural gas for transportation in North
America with a broad customer base in the refuse, transit, ports,
shuttle, taxi, regional trucking, airport and municipal fleet
markets. The company’s founder is legendary Texas oil and
gas executive T. Boone Pickens (you’ve probably heard a
lot recently about the Pickens Energy Plan), so we’re parking
our money with a winner.
Crew Energy (CR, TSX)
A fast-growing oil and natural gas producer, Crew Energy recently
completed a strategic takeover of Gentry Resources and over the
past year has assembled a dominant land position in the heart
of the important Montney resource play in northeast British Columbia.
This is an aggressive company well-positioned to deliver long-term
value to shareholders.
Eastmain Resources (ER, TSX)
After reaching nearly $2.00 in early July, Eastmain has pulled
back substantially to a very attractive $1.25 (just above its
rising 200-day moving average). Eastmain, which holds an attractive
package of properties, is currently drilling its million-ounce
Eau Claire Deposit in Quebec where surface rock has an impressive
$600 value. Its Eleonore South joint venture with Goldcorp, however,
is what could really send ER soaring.
Explor Resources (EXS, TSX-V)
Explor has pulled back to its 200-day moving average after quite
a run in June on favorable and interesting results from its Eastford
Lake gold project, 90 kilometres east of the Timmins-Porcupine
camp. Explor is also currently drilling its highly prospective
Kidd Township Property. Altogether, EXS has a land position of
over 10,000 hectares in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt. Strong management.
We like this stock a lot at its current price which puts a market
cap on EXS of only $16 million.
Goldsource Mines (GXS, TSX-V)
Goldsource has once again settled back to its 200-day moving
average where it has to be regarded as a strong buy. They have
made a significant coal discovery in Saskatchewan, though the
coal stock frenzy has certainly cooled off (at least for now).
There is also now a pause in GXS drilling, so it’s possible
this volatile stock could bottom out at a lower price but we would
“average down” if that were to happen. Goldsource
will bounce back strongly - it’s only a question of when.
GoldQuest Mining Corporation (GQC, TSX-V)
GoldQuest is entirely focused on the Dominican Republic and has
a strategic alliance with Gold Fields covering a number of high
quality targets. GQC is also developing its 100% owned Las Animas
gold-copper-silver-zinc property which is showing good potential.
This is one of those stocks you hold for a “major hit”
- they’re exploring in a favorable area with an excellent
geological team, so sooner or later they’re likely to deliver
some rather stunning drill results and discover a decent deposit.
IMA Exploration (IMR, TSX-V)
IMA is an interesting situation. It’s actually trading
at a 38% discount to its cash value. The company is currently
sitting on $25 million in cash and in a month or so will begin
drilling its Island Copper Project in the Port Hardy Mining Division
of Vancouver Island. IMA does have a bit of a history, and at
30 cents the stock is at an all-time low. But we just can’t
see it drifting much lower and in all probability it’s likely
to stage a significant recovery, if for no other reason than the
fact it’s at such a discount to its cash value. IMA’s
Island Copper Project does has some merit, however. It hosts at
least six copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry-related systems, and
the most advanced of these systems has a 43-101 measured and indicated
resource of 231 million tonnes grading 0.28% copper and 0.31 gram
per tonne gold.
Junex Inc. (JNX, TSX-V)
We’re bullish on the shale gas play in Quebec, and Junex
is certainly a major player there. They recently started their
2008-2009 exploration program that foresees the investment of
about $10-million in the St. Lawrence Lowlands over the next 18
months. The stock is down considerably from its high of just over
$8 per share in early June, and just recently bounced off its
200-day moving average. This will be a volatile stock in the months
ahead but the current price represents an excellent entry point.
Legend Power Systems (LPS, TSX-V)
This intriguing company finally became public in early July after
several frustrating years of trying to satisfy the TSX on a reverse
take-over of Texas Oil & Gas. Legend Power is an electrical
energy conservation company that uses a patented device to achieve
significant energy conservation results through voltage optimization.
This is not a theory - it’s a proven concept and one that
we believe Legend Power could have great success with. They already
have a significant client base that includes the likes of BC Hydro,
Canada Post, Honda Canada, and IKEA. Installation results have
yielded clearly measureable reductions in electric bills, maintenance
costs and greenhouse gases. It’ll be very interesting to
watch how this company develops in the months and years ahead.
Ontex Resources (ONT, TSX-V)
The strength of this stock during the recent market sell-off (it
actually went up in value significantly) was impressive to say
the least, which speaks volumes we believe about the encouraging
development of its Brookbank Gold Deposit in the Beardmore-Geraldton
area. The action we’re seeing in the stock suggests to us
that ONT wants to take a run at the $1.00 level - time will tell,
but we like the results that are coming out of Brookbank.
Pediment Exploration (PEZ, TSX-V)
The recent market sell-off took its toll on Pediment which has
been beaten down to a market cap of only $55 million. Pediment
recently filed a 43-101 report on its San Antonio Gold Project
in northwestern Mexico with a preliminary resource estimate of
1.45 million ounces (inferred). We believe San Antonio holds excellent
potential for two million or more ounces of proven reserves, and
Pediment has numerous other 100% owned properties in Mexico including
its other flagship, La Colorada. The company is well financed.
The current stock price is a steal, plain and simple, and it’s
interesting how it filled a “gap” recently around
$1.20.
Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V)
Probe disappointed investors with recent drill results from its
McFauld’s West and Victory Projects. But we believe both
properties (McFauld’s West in particular) still hold excellent
potential, and Probe also has a good prospect in its Tamarack
Property in addition to other landholdings it’s currently
starting to explore in the James Bay Lowlands. At just 25 cents
Probe is trading not far below its cash value, so now’s
the time to be a strong buyer of this stock. PRB is not likely
to get a whole lot cheaper, so the risk-reward ratio here is very
attractive.
Rubicon Minerals Corporation (RMX, TSX)
We’ve been keeping an eye on Rubicon for a while now, and
sure enough last week it reported bonanza grade gold (27 ounces
per ton) over two metres at its flagship Phoenix Gold Project.
Rubicon controls over 65,000 acres of prime exploration land in
the prolific Red Lake camp. With strong management and a portfolio
of excellent projects, Rubicon is well positioned to move very
swiftly in a stronger market this fall. Technically, the stock
has turned bullish with reversals in its 100 and 200-day moving
averages. RSI shows a short-term overbought condition, but we
believe this stock has much further to go through the balance
of the year.
Selwyn Resources (SWN, TSX-V)
Selwyn is a “dog” right now, and an abandoned one
it appears, so we’ve decided to adopt it. The Selwyn Project
in the eastern Yukon is a huge zinc property (the largest of three
giant undeveloped zinc deposits in the world) that this company
has been aggressively exploring and developing over the past few
years. The drop in zinc prices has taken its toll on the Selwyn
share price which just recently bounced off a 52-week low of 9.5
cents (it was as high as nearly $2.00 in early 2006). When times
look the bleakest, it’s time to buy. The stock closed Friday,
August 31, at 11 cents. Zinc prices will recover, sooner or later,
and so too will Selwyn.
Sherwood Copper (SWC, TSX-V)
Sherwood Copper is a producing company with excellent growth potential
and superb management that consistently meets its goals and timelines.
The stock has formed a nice base around $4.50 and appears ready
for lift-off. Commercial traders have massively increased their
long copper positions in recent weeks, suggesting copper could
be ready for a break-out which would certainly benefit SWC.
Shore Gold (SGF, TSX-V)
We’ve watched with amazement at how Shore, with one of the
world’s largest diamond deposits near Prince Albert, SK,
has been absolutely hammered by the market after topping out at
nearly $9 in early 2007. At just $1.49, Shore is just 19 cents
off its multi-year low of $1.30 that it plummeted to last week.
We’re putting Shore in our portfolio as this diamond play
does have solid intrinsic value and the stock is currently heavily
oversold and due for a near-term technical rebound if nothing
else.
Solex Resources (SOX, TSX-V)
Solex is very active in Peru where its flagship project is the
Macusani uranium play. Macusani “East” is a joint-venture
now with Eldorado Gold, following its takeover of Frontier Pacific,
while Solex is also advancing its three 100% owned Macusani projects.
We’ve followed exploration very closely at Macusani over
the last few years and we’re impressed by the potential
there. The uranium is low grade but widespread and very near surface.
Solex is also eyeing the possibility of re-acquiring 100% of Macusani
East if Eldorado decides not to keep it. Solex is well off its
all-time high of $1.60 and appears to have ended a brutal year-and-a-half
decline that brought it all the way down to just 16.5 cents in
early August. The company is well-funded and has a current market
cap of a modest $15 million.
Uranium One (UUU, TSX)
Uranium stocks have been hit extremely hard since topping out
in early 2007, but the uranium price is recovering and we believe
the demand for uranium will be high in the years ahead. Uranium
One is a growing producer whose stock price bottomed out at $3
earlier this year after reaching nearly $19 in 2007. As the uranium
“story” picks up again, investors will be paying much
more for Uranium One than they are now. The stock is starting
to look much healthier, technically, and once it blasts through
resistance and finds its way to about $6, the path is clear for
significantly higher prices.
Vast Exploration (VST, TSX-V)
Iraq is a smart place to invest at the moment, believe it or not,
and Vast recently completed a $35 million financing to participate
with Niko Resources (operator) in the exploration, development
and production of petroleum resources in the 846-square-kilometre
Qara Dagh block in the Sulaymaniya governorate of the Federal
Region of Kurdistan. The stock reached a high of $1.40 in June
before pulling back to its rising 200-day moving average. It has
since formed a nice base around the 60 cent area and appears ready
for another leg up.
VMS Ventures (VMS, TSX-V)
VMS continues to get excellent results from its Reed Lake discovery
in Manitoba where it holds one of the largest land positions in
the developing Flin-Flon-Snow Lake VMS belt. The recent weakness
in base metal prices and the overall sell-off in the general market
has reversed the stock’s technical condition from overbought
in late May/June to oversold, and it’s now sitting at very
attractive levels just above strong long-term support at 45 cents.
We’re optimistic Reed Lake will develop into a significant
deposit.
Category 3 ETF’s
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold Bull (HGU, TSX)
We’ve consistently made the case for gold here in recent
weeks, and actually put out a “screaming buy” recommendation
on the HGU at $15.00 on August 11. We’re investing $5,000
into the HGU based on its August 29 closing price of $17.24.
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull (HNU, TSX)
This is our single-largest investment right now - a $15,000 position
in the HNU at $15.09. The HNU has been savagely hammered over
the past two months, dropping from a high of $48 in early July.
Downside momentum appears to have run its course, however, and
it’s important to note that the COT structure at the moment
now looks very bullish - commercial traders have gone hugely long
on natural gas, and they’re great at calling market turnarounds.
We do like the fundamentals of natural gas as well.